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Mumbai, India (AHN) – India is set to gate-crash into the exclusive three-member club of nuclear triads by 2012 with its first nuclear submarine, INS Arihant, which is to be commissioned in either late 2011 or early 2012. Arihant means “destroyer of enemies” in the Hindi language.

Only three countries in the world currently have a complete nuclear weapon triad, which means the capability to fire nuclear-tipped missiles from land, air and sea. These countries are the US, Russia and China.

Indian Navy chief Adm. Nirmal Verma announced Thursday that the country’s crucial underwater leg of nuclear capability would be the third arm of the country’s nuclear defense, which is presently made up of road and rail-mobile ballistic missiles as well as fighter jets such as Mirage 2000s and Sukhoi-30 MKIs, all of which are able to deliver nuclear weapons.

Speaking ahead of the forthcoming Navy Day on Saturday, Verma said, “When INS Arihant goes to sea, it will be on a deterrent patrol. The triad will then be in place… the aim is to make it as effective as possible.”

The INS Arihant was launched in Vizag in July 2009. After it is commissioned, it will possess potent SLBM capabilities, which would complete India’s nuclear triad and bolster its position among the nuclear power club.

Speaking on this development, sources within the Navy said that Arihant remained a top secret project until its launch last year. It is first of three nuclear-powered submarines that India is currently building with help from Russia.

Clarifying India’s stand on nuclear deterrence, Verma also said, “We have a declared policy of no-first-use, but we have Arihant. We have a triad in place now, but we have to use it as effectively as possible. We have Arihant going within two years and there is progress in the project, despite some hiccups. We will be within time and commission the vessel by 2012.”

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4.19pm: Edward Leigh, a Conservative, says public spending is still going up, despite “these so-called cuts”. There should be more efficiency savings, he says.

Osborne says there has to be greater productivity in the public services.

4.18pm: Labour’s Chuka Umunna says the OBR has revised down its forecasts for business investment over the next few years. Where will the growth come from, he asks.

Osborne says the OBR expects the government to meet its goal of eliminating the deficit.

Labour’s Andy Love asks if Osborne is concerned about the “optimism” of the forecasts.

Osborne says these are independent forecasts. Robert Chote is “not in anyone’s pocket”. Love is on the Treasury committee that interviewed Chote for the post of head of the OBR and approved him, Osborne says.

Labour’s Sheila Gilmore says the OBR has revised down its growth forecasts.

Osborne says all economic forecasts need to be treated with caution.

4.11pm: Asked about his growth paper, Osborne says he expects to produce measures in time for the budget in the spring.

Labour’s Dennis Skinner asks why the Irish banks were worth saving, but not Northern Rock.

Osborne says the impact of not saving the Irish banks on Skinner’s constituents would be “very severe”.

4.07pm: In response to a question from Ian Paisley Jr, George Osborne says some EU countries wanted to force Ireland to increase its corporation tax rate as a condition of receiving the bailout. But Osborne was opposed to this. He thinks Ireland should be free to make its own decisions about tax, he says.

4.04pm: George Osborne is replying to Alan Johnson. He says that Johnson was wrong about growth. And he mocks Johnson by quoting from his interview with the FT today. (See 10.02am.) Osborne quotes the “if you’ve not got anything to say, keep your mouth shut” line.

4.00pm: The full text of Osborne’s statement is now on the Treasury’s website .

Here’s a press notice about the corporation tax reform .

And here’s a press notice about the growth review .

3.59pm: Alan Johnson is still speaking. He says the government is depending on exports to drive the recovery. But the state of the world economy makes this doubtful, he says.

Johnson says the plan for a tax cut for newly-created patents is “excellent”. But it’s a Labour idea. It was in the pre-budget report, he says.

On Ireland, Johnson quotes from something Osborne said about Ireland in 2008. Osborne said the Irish public finances were “well placed”. Osborne said: “They used the fat years to prepare for the lean years.” That gets a laugh from Labour MPs.

3.55pm: Alan Johnson is responding for Labour. “Let’s move from bombast to reality,” he says.

He says the OBR admit in their report that their forecasts are likely to be wrong.

The US has a higher proportionate deficit, but is reducing it more slowly, Johnson says. George Osborne is taking a “gamble” with the recovery. But he is doing so on the basis of a “fundamental deceit” – the suggestion that the economy was in a worse state in May than it really was.

Johnson pays tribute to the “balanced” approach taken by Alistair Darling, Osborne’s Labour predecessor.

Osborne is “in the casino”, but he has not “spun the wheel yet”, Johnson says.

Johnson says that, after this year, the OBR has revised down its growth forecasts. And it is expecting unemployment to rise next year. The Local Government Association expects 140,000 council jobs to go next year. And the CBI says the VAT increase coming into effect in January will cost 250,000 jobs, he says.

3.48pm: Osborne is now talking about the Irish bailout.

– Britain’s bilateral loan to Ireland will be worth £3.25bn.

Britain will not be part of the permanent European bailout mechanism being set up, Osborne says. When the permanent mechanism is established, the European financial stability mechanism (which does include Britain) will be abolished.

Britain is “on the mend”, Osborne says.

3.45pm: Osborne is now talking about his plans to promote growth.

Corporation tax has already been cut to 24%. Today the government is publishing plans to simplify corporate taxation.

Osborne is also changing the tax treatment of income from intellectual property.

– Tax from newly-created patents to be cut to 10%.

– GlaxoSmithKline announcing a £500m investment in the UK as a result of the government’s tax decision. This will create 1,000 jobs, Osborne says.

– Government to conduct a cross-departmental growth review. This will examine ways of promoting growth.

3.42pm: Osborne says his actions have shown that Britain can live within its means. “Already our efforts are paying off,” he says. The OBR is saying that Britain will save £19bn in interest payments by the end of the forecast period as a result of the government cuts.

This is an uncertain world, but the British recovery is on track.

Osborne says that those who are proposing that Britain should “borrow more and spend more” are recommending something that would be “disastrous” for the UK.

3.40pm: Osborne says the European Commission has also published its forecasts for the UK economy today. The commission says growth in the UK will be higher than in Germany, Japan and the US, and higher than the average for the EU and the eurozone.

The OBR is essentially saying that a double-dip recession will not happen, Osborne says.

The OBR is forecast unemployment of around 6% by the end of this parliament. That will be lower than at the time of the election, Osborne says.

On public sector jobs, Osborne says the government’s “difficult choices” on benefit cuts mean that fewer public sector jobs will be lost. Private sector job creation will “far outweigh” the loss of jobs in the public sector, Osborne says.

3.32pm: Osborne says that today is the first time MPs will be able to debate an autumn forecast produced by an independent body, not “conjured up” by the chancellor of the day. He also says that MPs have had two hours to read the forecasts; in other words, they have had time to read it before the statement.

Osborne says the figures should be treated with “a degree of caution”. The OBR admits this in its report. It is not claiming “infallible certainty”, as Osborne’s political predecessors did when they announced their forecasts, he says.

The economic recovery is “on track”, Osborne adds.

Employment and GDP are higher in every quarter and in every year than in the June forecast, he says.

Britain is on course to both grow the economy and balance the books – something some people said could not happen.

3.29pm: George Osborne is just starting his statement now. He will cover the OBR forecasts. But he will also update MPs about the Irish situation.

3.20pm: Back to the OBR. The BBC’s Stephanie Flanders has posted her verdict on her blog . Here’s how she starts:

The chancellor will find little to concern him in the latest forecast from the independent watchdog he created – and some important reasons to cheer, particularly in the labour market. But, as the director of the Office of Budget Responsibility, Robert Chote is keen to stress he’d be mad to expect any of the forecasts in this report to turn out to be right.

3.13pm: George Osborne will be giving his response to the OBR report at 3.30pm. But, in the meantime, let’s return to the Lib Dems and tuition fees (see 9.31am), because the Lib Dem MP Stephen Williams has told the BBC that the government’s proposal is essentially the same as a graduate tax. This is what he told the World at One.

The new system that is coming in for graduate contributions is basically a graduate tax by any other name. We are just not calling it a graduate tax for technical European law issues. But it’s a much fairer way of graduates paying back something towards their higher education.

Williams, who used to be the party’s higher education spokesman and who recently wrote a fascinating post on his blog about how he tried to change party policy on tuition fees, also said he thought Lib Dem ministers should abstain in the forthcoming vote on the government’s plans.

2.56pm: And this is what Brendan Barber, the general secretary of the TUC, is saying about the new OBR figures:

No doubt the chancellor will try to spin the OBR report as a vindication of his approach. But a closer look at the figures reveals that even by the time of the next election, the OBR expects well over a million people still to be claiming unemployment benefit.

In short, by 2015 the UK economy will still not be back to where it was before the recession hit in 2008. No politician should seize on these figures as some sort of good news story, least of all one that has just abandoned its plans to publish a jobs and growth strategy for the country.

2.49pm: Here’s a statement from Alan Johnson (left) about the new OBR forecasts:

The OBR’s forecast for a weak recovery reminds us all of the risks this government has chosen to take with the economy. Growth forecasts have been cut for the next two years as the momentum in the economy this year fails to feed though to future years. And the OBR warns that it now expects unemployment to rise next year. For families up and down the country a jobless recovery is no recovery at all.

2.23pm: You don’t often find Unite lining up with the Institute of Directors (IoD), but there are some similarities in what they are saying about the latest OBR forecasts. They both seem unconvinced by the OBR’s predictions about the number of public sector jobs that will be lost. The IoD’s chief economist said he found the figures “puzzling”. Unite, as you would expect, is far more critical. This is from Len McCluskey, its general secretary-elect.

The reality in the workplaces of the UK is of job losses, financial cutbacks and belt tightening by our members in the face of the current harsh economic climate. Yet the OBR is upgrading its growth forecast for 2010 to 1.8% from the 1.2% predicted in June.

We seem to be living in two parallel economic universes: the optimistic one being peddled by the coalition’s creation, the OBR, and then there is the ‘real’ one, which sees firms being unable to borrow money from the state-owned and other banks to invest in jobs and expand their businesses; where £81bn of public spending cuts will hit demand in communities, where the public sector is a major economic generator; and where reputable economists are predicting more than one million jobs being lost in the public and private sectors.

Something does not add up here, and this latest forecast from the OBR poses as many questions as it attempts to answer.

2.14pm: Back to the press conference. A reporter asks if we can now rule out a double-dip recession. Sadly, Robert Chote decides to give an economist’s answer (ie a long and nuanced one), rather than the simple “yes” the questioner was hoping for. Chote says that it is “not impossible” that Britain could have a quarter or two of negative growth. But this is not the OBR’s “central expectation”.

BBC News has now given up its coverage of the news conference.

2.04pm: While I wait for the BBC to catch up, here’s some reaction from Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors. He sounds slightly mystified as to why the forecast for the number of public sector jobs being lost isn’t higher.

The really interesting story from the OBR is the slashing in public sector job losses from 490,000 to 330,000. This means that the projected public-sector employment losses are almost half those seen in the 1990s. The peak-to-trough reduction in public spending in the 1990s was 7.4 per cent of GDP. The comparable reduction now is 7.9 per cent of GDP by 2015-16. So the spending squeeze is on a par with the 1990s but the employment shake-out is far less. This is puzzling, even when we allow for a greater burden of the cuts falling on welfare spending this time around.

Leach also thinks the OBR’s growth forecasts are still a bit optimistic.

The OBR’s 2011 GDP growth forecast still looks a bit optimistic even after the downgrade. We face very strong headwinds next year. Real take-home pay faces a sharp squeeze, and the savings ratio is already very low. Throw in ongoing problems in the financial system and anaemic money supply growth, and our judgment is that the economy will be weaker than expected.

1.58pm: Sky have stopped showing the press conference. BBC News are broadcasting it, but their feed seems to be about five minutes behind Sky’s live coverage.

1.55pm: On the change in the forecast for public sector job cuts, he says there is now around 2.5% more money available to pay for general government employment than the government expected in June, because the government is raising more money from welfare cuts than it was planning at that point.

1.50pm: Robert Chote is winding up now. He says he wants to address whether government policies are consistent with balancing the books over the long term.

Public sector net debt “is comfortably on a downward trajectory”, he says.

But demographic change could put pressure on the budget, he says. The effects of the population will eventually put net debt on an upward path, he says.

(I did not realise the OBR was looking that far ahead. Some of the charts in the reports go up to 2050. Chote seemed to be saying that George Osborne’s sums may add up in the medium term, but in the long run he’s going to have to find more money because we’re all living longer.)

1.41pm: Faisal Islam, Channel 4′s economics editor, has spotted an interesting line in the OBR report. He’s posted this on Twitter :

OBR assumes property prices will fall 2.7% in the next fiscal year.

That’s the Daily Express’s OBR story sorted.

1.40pm: Robert Chote is now talking about the Irish bailout. He says the bilateral loan is the only part of the British contribution that will feature in the national finances. He says the details of the loan were not available when the OBR produced its figures. But the sums involved are too small to make a difference to its overall figures, he says.

1.38pm: Robert Chote is still making his opening statement at the press conference.

General government employment is now expected to fall by 330,000 over the next four years. That’s 160,000 fewer than the figure the OBR produced in June. It has changed its forecast because the government is now saving more money than expected at the time of the budget from welfare cuts. But the OBR is predicting a further loss of around 80,000 government jobs in 2015-16.

The deficit is expected to fall from 11.1% of GDP this year to 1% by 2015-16, Chote says.

The forecast for debt is marginally lower than it was in June. But it will still peak at around 70% of GDP.

1.31pm: Robert Chote is summarising his findings at the press conference. I’ve mentioned some of the key findings already.

Forecasts for net borrowing have changed “only modestly”, Chote says.

The government has a “better than 50%” chance of meeting the borrowing targets it has set itself, he says.

On current evidence, the government’s fiscal consolidation is consistent with the targets it has set itself (to eliminate the deficit), consistent with modest growth, Chote says. But he says deciding whether the government is cutting the deficit too quickly is a matter that is beyond the remit of the OBR. He concedes that this is an issue on which there is disagreement.

The recovery will be slower than in the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s, Chote says.

1.25pm: Here’s more from the OBR report:

– The economy has recovered “more strongly” since the spring than the OBR expected in June.

– Growth will be “relatively sluggish” during the medium term.

Our central forecast is that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than in the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. This relatively sluggish medium-term outlook reflects the gradual normalisation of credit conditions, efforts to reduce private-sector indebtedness and the impact of the government’s fiscal consolidation.

– Growth will be at its slowest in the first quarter of next year, when it will be 0.3%.

– Unemployment will rise to just over 8%, on the ILO measure, next year. Then it will fall to just over 6% by 2015.

– Employment will rise from 29 million this year to 30 million in 2015 “as private sector job creation more than offsets falling public sector employment”.

Robert Chote, the new head of the OBR, is now holding a press conference.

1.13pm: Here are the Press Association snaps about the OBR report:

The Office for Budget Responsibility lifted its 2010 forecast for UK economic growth from 1.2% to 1.8% today but lowered its estimates for 2011 and 2012 from 2.3% to 2.1% and 2.8% to 2.6% respectively.

The OBR slightly lowered its forecast for public borrowing in the current 2010-11 financial year to £148.5bn from £149.5bn.

The OBR slashed its forecast for public sector job losses over the next four years from 490,000 to 330,000.

And here’s the top of the PA story:

The outlook for the economy is “inherently uncertain” and recovery will be slower than after previous recessions, the UK’s tax and spending watchdog warned today.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said the impact of government deficit-busting measures – which include a hike in VAT to 20% and an £81bn package of spending cuts – would lead to “sluggish growth” in the medium term.

The new report, Economic and fiscal outlook, is now on the OBR’s website .

12.54pm: The Office for Budget Responsibility is due to release its revised economic forecasts at 1pm. They should be available on the OBR’s website after 1pm. At 1.20pm the OBR is hosting a news conference.

Here’s the report it produced at the time of the budget in June .

12.41pm: Here is a lunchtime summary:

– Downing Street has condemned the release of confidential US government information by Wikileaks. “Clearly, we condemn the unauthorised release of classified information,” the prime minister’s spokesman said. “The leaks and their publication are damaging to national security in the US, Britain and elsewhere.” (See 11.53am.)

– More than 100 Liberal Democrat activists who stood as candidates at the general election have signed an open letter saying the party will “rightly face many more years back in the political wilderness” if Lib Dem MPs break their promise to vote against an increase in tuition fees. As Patrick Wintour reports in the Guardian today , Simon Hughes is trying to persuade his colleagues to abstain, although Lib Dem ministers are under pressure to vote in favour of the government’s plans. (See 9.31am.)

– Ed Vaizey, the culture minister, has announced that the British Film Institute will take responsibility for distributing grants to British filmmakers following the abolition of the UK Film Council. (See 12.14pm.)

12.14pm: Ed Vaizey, the arts minister, announced today that the British Film Institute will become “the flagship body for the delivery of UK film policy”. He also said there would be a 60% increase in lottery funding for film by 2014. My colleague John Plunkett has a story about this on the Guardian’s website , the culture department’s press notice is here , and the full text of Vaizey’s speech is here .

12.07pm: Lord Mandelson (left) is launching an international consultancy. Sky’s Mark Kleinman has broken the story and he’s got more details on his blog:

Global Counsel LLP, which is expected to be chaired by Lord Mandelson and run by Ben Wegg-Prosser, a long-standing ally of the former Labour minister, has secured a significant investment from WPP Group, the FTSE 100 marketing services giant, I’m told.

The news will end six months of speculation about Lord Mandelson’s post-ministerial career. Global Counsel will advise multinational companies, and I suspect that one of its focuses given his background will be on exploiting opportunities in the world’s growth markets (particularly in Africa, Asia, Latin America and parts of eastern Europe – which dovetail neatly with WPP’s own priority regions for expansion).

11.53am: I’m just back from the No 10 lobby briefing, where the prime minister’s spokesman said the government “condemned” the latest release of US classified material by Wikileaks.

Clearly, we condemn the unauthorised release of classified information. The leaks and their publication are damaging to national security in the US, Britain and elsewhere … Governments need to be able to operate on a confidential basis when dealing with this kind of information and the fact that it has been leaked is damaging.

But the prime minister’s spokesman was not willing to identify any specific leak that may have caused any specific damage to the national interest. When pressed on this, he repeated his general point about the release of information like this undermining confidentiality. He also said that leaks like this “have the potential to damage national security”.

The spokesman also refused to say what David Cameron felt about the news that he had been criticised in the US files. The American ambassador, Louis Susman, briefed Downing Street officials about the leaks at the end of last week, but he did not speak to Cameron, and Cameron has not spoke to Barack Obama about the affair.

10.35am: You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here . And all the politics stories filed yesterday, including some in today’s paper, are here .

As for the rest of the papers, I’ve already mentioned the FT’s interview with Alan Johnson (see 10.02am). Here are some other articles of interest.

– Duncan Gardham in the Daily Telegraph says the government is likely to cut the maximum limit for pre-charge detention for terrorist suspects from 28 days to 14 days when it concludes its review of counter-terrorism legislation. But control orders are likely to stay in a “refashioned” form.

Theresa May, the Home Secretary, is attempting to hold on to a refashioned version of control orders despite opposition from Liberal Democrats led by Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister.

The Government is conducting a review of terrorism legislation introduced in the wake of the September 11 attacks but the results have been delayed as the Government examines “every option known to man” to head off a Liberal Democrat revolt, according to one source.

It is understood that Mr Clegg believes control orders – the system of curfews under which terrorism suspects are electronically tagged – should be abolished while Mrs May, who has had extensive briefings from the security services and the police, thinks they must be retained.

The row threatens to split the Coalition if Mr Clegg decides to give his backbenchers a free vote.

– And Lord Carlile, the government’s independent reviewer of terror legislation, suggests in the Daily Telegraph control orders could be replaced by a three-tier system. He has already submitted this idea to ministers.

First, for those who simply want to travel abroad to train as terrorists, we could have foreign travel restriction orders founded on a raised standard of proof of ”reasonable belief” that the individual wishes to leave the UK for purposes connected with training a terrorist.

Second, we could have general travel restriction orders on reasonable belief that the individual has the more developed intent to participate in terrorist activity.

Third, for the most serious cases we could have activity restriction orders, where a judge was satisfied on the much raised standard of the balance of probabilities that the individual is a terrorist. The system would have an increasing scale of restrictions, including curfews (but not compulsory relocation) for the highest tier.

– George Parker in the Financial Times (subscription) says Liam Fox has dropped his pre-election promise to withdraw Britain from the European Defence Agency.

But Mr Fox has written to Lady Ashton, head of the agency, warning that Britain will block proposals for a 3.9 per cent rise in its budget next year, claiming it was “impossible to justify” at a time of austerity.

Although the EDA has a relatively small budget, Mr Fox has always viewed it as an unacceptable reflection of the expanding ambitions of Brussels. However, Mr Fox’s aides confirmed on Sunday that he was no longer committed to an immediate British withdrawal from the agency, although the UK’s longer-term membership was under review.

– Louise Armitstead and Harry Wallop in the Daily Telegraph say the government will today try to persuade companies to stay in Britain “by pledging an immediate reform of two corporate taxes that are blamed for driving businesses overseas”.

George Osborne, the Chancellor, and Vince Cable, the Business Secretary, are planning to announce the overhaul of the Controlled Foreign Companies tax and a lower rate for income generated from Intellectual Property.

Some of Britain’s biggest companies including WPP, the advertising group, and Shire, the pharmaceuticals company, recently moved their headquarters to Ireland citing the complicated and uncertain company tax regime as the main reason.

I’m now off to the Downing Street lobby briefing. I’ll post again after 11.30am.

10.22am: The cabinet is meeting today. It normally meets on a Tuesday, but the date has been changed because David Cameron is going to Zurich tomorrow to lobby on behalf of England’s 2018 World Cup bid. He’s going to be there for the best part of three days, although he is planning to nip back for PMQs on Wednesday.

10.02am: I’ll post a full review of the papers shortly, but Alan Johnson’s interview in the Financial Times (subscription) merits special attention because it’s full of good material. Here are the key points.

– Johnson said he would like Labour to cut taxes.

I’d like to see us reduce taxes. I’d like to see us reduce it for middle-income and low-income people.

– But he suggested that Labour would want to keep the 50p top rate of tax at the election.

It’s very difficult to imagine we won’t need a 50p tax rate. We need it now. It’s very difficult to imagine we won’t need it at the time of the next general election but, as Ed [Miliband] says, we’ll look at it at the time.

– He predicted that the more the public saw of Miliband, the more they would like him.

I think they’ll tune into Radio Ed and find something they really like.

– He said he would take his time before developing policy on issues like breaking up the banks. In the meantime, he would stay quiet on these issues, he said.

I’m a great believer in the philosophy that if you’ve not got anything to say, keep your mouth shut.

– He revealed what was on his economics reading list. When he got the job, Johnson joked about needing to read an economics primer. But actually he briefed himself by reading the Financial Times summer series about the respective merits of austerity policies versus stimulus policies.

9.46am: The Labour MP Margaret Hodge was on the Today programme earlier talking about how she defeated the BNP in Barking at the election. The campaign is the subject of a documentary, The Battle for Barking, which is on More4 tomorrow. According to PoliticsHome, Hodge said that “reconnecting with voters” and focusing on issues like potholes helped her to see off Nick Griffin.

What I did, because there was nothing I could do about immigration and there was nothing I could do about magicking up the jobs and the housing that created massive anger and frustration … everything I did was about reconnecting Labour with our local people … We do our politics now in a different way. I listened to what people have said and even if I can’t deliver on the big issues, I can deliver on things like potholes, pavements.

9.31am: As the BBC has been reporting, more than 100 people who stood as Liberal Democrat candidates at the last election have signed an open letter urging Lib Dem MPs to vote against the rise in tuition fees. The letter, which is on Derek Deedman’s website, explains very directly why breaking the pre-election promise to vote against any tuition fee increase would be so damaging to the party.

There is one thing that sets the Liberal Democrats apart from other political parties; this is that when we say we will do something during election campaigns we then do it in government. This can be seen in how the income tax threshold will rise to £10,000 by the end of this Parliament, the AV referendum on 5th May 2011, the reduction of MP’s to 600, the Pupil Premium and the delay over the replacement of Trident. We have achieved this and more despite the compromises of being in a coalition.

Nick Clegg emphasised this best of all during the televised leadership debates when he said that the Labour and Conservative Parties have given us “Nothing but broken promises”, he also emphasised that “The Liberal Democrats are different”. Finally and crucially he announced how he wanted to create a “New politics” and part of this vision was for parties to do in government as they claim they will in opposition …

We are different and must show that we are; especially now that we are in a position to do so. Otherwise this party will rightly face many more years back in the political wilderness having been labelled as ‘just like the other lot’.

9.21am: Even though half the country is covered in snow and it feels as if we are in the depths of winter, George Osborne has decided that today’s the day to deliver an ” autumn statement “. He will be the first chancellor to deliver one since Norman Lamont in 1992. By law the government has to deliver a financial report on the state of the economy twice a year. Chancellors used to do this in the autumn, and they would use the autumn statement to announce departmental spending allocations. Then Kenneth Clarke combined the autumn statement with the spring budget, because he thought it made more sense to announce tax and spending decisions at the same time, although he also made a summer statement about the economy to comply with the “twice a year rule”. When Labour came to power, Gordon Brown replaced the autumn statement with a pre-budget report, effectively a mini budget. Today, under Osborne, the autumn statement is back.

Osborne will deliver his statement at 3.30pm. Unlike Lamont, he won’t be publishing departmental spending allocations. He has already done that, in the comprehensive spending review. Instead he will be responding to the Office for Budget Responsibility, which at 1pm will be publishing its revised economic forecasts. As Patrick Wintour reports in the Guardian today , the OBR will raise the estimate of 2010 growth from the 1.2% contained in the June budget to close to 1.8% and cut projections for public-sector job cuts by nearly a fifth. Osborne will also publish a growth discussion paper.

Otherwise, it’s a relatively quiet day. The Wikileaks story is, of course, huge, but largely I’ll leave that to my colleague Matthew Weaver, who is covering it in a live blog . I’ll focus on the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. George Osborne Economic policy Andrew Sparrow guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

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