Jerusalem, Israel David Rosenberg (The Medi – Home prices – an anxious subject for both Israeli consumers and policy makers as they first raced higher and then suddenly started to sink – remain a threat to the economy, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned on Monday.

Although the price rises have eased as the government has clamped down on mortgage lending, Israel is by no means out of the hole yet, the Paris-based organization said in a report. Israel faces a twin risk of prices spiraling upward to bubble levels, if current measures don’t bring about long-term stability, or conversely dropping sharply.

“There is still a risk that a soft landing may not be achieved and house prices (and loan repayments) in relation to rents and incomes may reach ‘bubble’ proportions, heightening the risk of a sharp and damaging correction,” the OECD said. “On the other hand, the early stages of weakness may presage an imminent sharper-than-desired decline in prices.”

The warning has special meaning for Israel, which unlike the U.S. and much of Europe, succeeded in avoiding the catastrophic collapse of its housing market and the financial crisis that followed. But ironically the country’s record of almost uninterrupted economic growth, combined with low borrowing rates, caused home prices to start climbing in Israel just as much of the developed world was seeing prices fall at double-digit rates.

The increase caused the Bank of Israel to undertake a series of measures to reduce demand for mortgages at the same time it was raising interest rates through much of 2010 and 2011.

“There’s a lot of concern that there will be crash. Prices are heading down – the only question is how fast and how far,” Pinchas Landau, an independent financial consultant, told The Media Line.

“For first time in 15 years, there’s more supply than demand. There isn’t massive building. You have a multi-year backlog, but it’s not American situation,” he said. “There could be widespread pain, but if prices come down 20 percent I don’t think that’s a crash. You have to look at how much they went up before.”

Home prices in the 12 months through September climbed 10.5 percent and the central bank has reversed course and lowered its base lending rate in the past two months, a move that could encourage more home loans. Nevertheless, there are signs that they may have reached a plateau.

The rise over the past 12 months is far less steep than the 20 percent recorded in 2010 and August-September prices dropped for the first time since 2008, according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

Meanwhile, residential construction is increasing while sales of new homes are falling. The number of building starts in the 12 months through August reached 43,672 units, compared with annual rates of less than 35,000 up through 2009. But only 1,057 new homes were sold in October 2011, down by more than 50 percent from a year ago, the CBS reported at the end of November.

A survey of senior real estate executives in Israel conducted by the accounting firm Deloitte Brightman Almagor Zohar in November found that 46 percent expected home prices to decline as much as 10 percent in the coming 12 months and another 9 percent saw drops of 10-20 percent. Fifteen percent, however, foresee rises of up to 10 percent.

The OECD said that warning indicators, such as the ratio of home prices to rents had not reached “critical levels” and lauded the measures taken by Israel to restrain the rises. But it did recommend that the government, which controls the lion’s share of land in the country through its Israel Lands Authority, speed up the sale of leaseholds, reduce delays in planning approvals and work to develop a market in mortgage-backed securities “with a good deal of caution.”

It said tax exemptions for homeowners and property investors should be pared back and housing policy geared more toward encouraging more rental housing and helping low-income families.

In spite of growing signs of recession in Europe, which is Israel’s biggest trade partner, Israeli gross domestic product will likely post another year of growth in 2012, the OECD said. Real GDP growth will shift down to 2.9 percent in 2012 from 4.7 percent this year, but accelerate to 3.9 percent in 2013.

“This is substantially better than in many OECD countries, but Israel benefits from relatively rapid population growth,” OECD economist Peter Jarrett said Sunday while visiting Israel for the Globes Business Conference in Tel Aviv. “Europe is leading the world into another period of very slow growth, if not outright recession.”

The report addressed two other issues that have dominated economic policy in the past year amid a gathering storm of social protests over the high cost of living and growing income inequality. The protests began quietly against hikes in gasoline prices, morphed into a nationwide boycott of cottage cheese and erupted over the summer into tent cities and mass rallies that drew hundreds of thousands demanding a wide range of economic reforms.

The government responded by appointing a committee to examine socio-economic policy and has since adopted some of the recommendations of the so-called Trajtenberg panel.

The OECD said that Israel’s “deep socio-economic cleavages,” expressed in high rates of poverty and income inequality, is weighing down on the economy by lowering growth rates for productivity and per capita income. Although the problem is concentrated in Israel’s ultra-Orthodox and Arab populations – which account for 60 percent of poor households, double their proportion of the population – they are not the only Israelis trapped in poverty.

The report noted some progress in overhauling education, where Israeli students have performed poorly in international comparisons of achievement in science, math and reading. But the OECD faulted efforts to encourage people to join the workforce, pointing to the abandonment of the Wisconsin program, which had put the responsibility job placement in the hands of private sector firms.

The OECD was also supportive of efforts to increase business competition and restrict the size and power of holding companies. It backed plans to separate financial institutions, such as banks and insurers, from other businesses, while faulting the government for the slow progress toward creating competition in electricity generation.

The OECD said the scope for increasing competition in other industries is limited due to the small size of the Israeli economy.

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